Huck Ain't The Gipper (And Couldn't Be)

Nixguy links to an article that compares Huckabee favorably to Reagan. Back in the day The Gipper was discounted by the media and the cynical class of pundits as an easy candidate to beat - and actor and and empty suit, they called him. Likewise the DNC attack machine is said to have deliberately held their fire on Huckabee, because they have such a deep file of opposition research that they see him as a candidate with a "glass jaw". In other words, if the Republicans nominate Huck, he'll be easy to slam to the ground in the general.

The idea is Huckabee shouldn't be counted out - because "they" were wrong about Reagan.

To me this seems like a misleading comparison. Much has changed in the past 30 years - notably an drastic escalation of the culture war which had only started to get underway in the 70s and 60s. There was a time in recent memory when the Democratic platform was pro-growth, pro-defense, and even acknowledged the existence of a higher power - and likewise there was a time when evangelical Christians played a much smaller role - arguably because more average people were moderately Christian.

Now both the Left and Right have sizable and incredibly angry portions of their base. If 15% of the general population consists of Democrats with Bush derangement syndrome - and if another 15% is made up of hardcore, unforgiving Republicans - that means a whopping 30% of the electorate is ready to see blood on the walls before they let the other group take the reigns of power.

This is not the same country that existed in 1980, when Reagan was swept into office by a landslide - one comprised of a plurality of conservatives, moderates, and Reagan Democrats. These days we have political machines that are tuned to operate in an intensely partisan environment. Which is why I'm willing to give some credence to the DNC's impression of Huckabee - an easy mark, who will be made to look foolish, extreme and unelectable compared to the (supposedly much more sensible) Democratic alternative.