The Iran N.I.E. At Face Value

If we take the intelligence report at face value, Iran stopped pursuing a nuclear research program in 2003.

Back up a moment. If we take the intelligence report at face value, then we are saying we have a restored faith in outfits like the CIA, and everything they say, from this point forward, is not up for debate. We'll accept not only the intelligence reports that align neatly with our policy positions - but also those that cause headaches because, for example, we may have voted for some kind of recent Senate resolution (cough, cough).

So, good news! The days of murky uncertainty, per the bad old days of weapons of mass destruction and reports that may have been distorted by political pressure - those days are gone. Intelligence reports will be reliable and true from this point forward.

Also, if we take the intelligence report at face value, we might ask WHY Iran chose to stop pursuing a nuclear program. Did the mullahs abandon their efforts out of the goodness of their hearts? Did they decide that it was too technically complicated - that they were incapable of the level of sophistication that had previously been obtained by, say, Pakistan? Did they simply decide to spend the money on schools and medical care?

Or ... might they have noticed any trouble in the immediate neighborhood (cough, cough) which led them to believe that such a belligerent course of action was unwise? Do we dare consider the heretical notion that some of the "saber rattling" by the current administration might have had exactly it's stated effect - deterring belligerent powers from making advances towards terror? Admittedly it's more fashionable in some circles to sniff derisively at hot-headed rhetoric about an "axis of evil" - a phrase that entered the political lexicon on January 29, 2002, interestingly enough - because (according to that line of reasoning) Bush and his cronies actually want a war, despite their repeated, vocal claims that they want exactly the opposite.

Maybe it's time we listened to those claims.

That is, if we take the intelligence report at face value. Note that there are countries with a huge interest in not going to war who do not take this report at face value whatsoever.