McCain's Last Stand - This Time For Sure

A bevy of recent items, including a McCain/Bloomberg prediction by veteran pundit William Safire, this item about Strategic Vision pollster David E. Johnson, and the latest trend analysis from Rasmussen all suggest that McCain might be quietly pushing his way to the front of the Republican pack, to face off against Romney.

It would seem unlikely, I'll admit. But stranger things have been known to happen - and it all depends on what portion of the likely-to-vote population is now waking up to smell the electoral roses. The bible belters? The middlin' moderates? The folks who go with mere brand recognition - who remember McCain from the 2000 election and figure he's next in line?

Yes, it's a shame McCain was fatefully wrong on the politics of immigration. But for that issue he might have sloughed off the image of the dreaded compromiser. He might have been the Republican's Hillary Clinton - the "devil you know" candidate with the gloss of experience - except in this case true legislative and political experience, with a non-malleable record of true policy positions on many issues, whether you agree or not.

It's possible he may win New Hampshire. It's less likely, but possible he may place a second in Iowa. Which would bring him to a peculiar point - going into South Carolina again, the old battlefield on which he was defeated eight years ago, to a large extent by the Christian base - which might, ironically, be looking at a northerner and Mormon as the strongest alternative, by then. (Would McCain highlight the religious issue?)

As likely as any scenario, at this point.

Fussy Huckabee Alert

There's something about this guy that seems to lack gravitas. I can't put my finger on it exactly, but it's the overall sense that he'd respond to the stress of the presidency by either micro-managing his staff, or by reacting disproportionately to some minor perceived insult to his vanity, or by becoming obsessed with minutiae.

Do you know what I'm talking about? Have you ever been out to dinner in a semi-formal setting, such as with new business clients, and the proceedings are almost de-railed because somebody made a big, flappin' fuss with the wait staff over some aspect of their meal? And for the rest of the time you work with that person you think - seems like a nice guy, but I'll never forget that look on his face when his club sandwich came on wheat, instead of rye ...

I'm not saying Mike Huckabee is pre-destined for the Howard Dean donkey-bleating type of political implosion. But any time anyone "demands" an apology in political life - or in the arena of public discourse in general - it just seems a shade too petty. Go ahead and respond to the attack if you find it necessary - if you really think there's a political advantage to be had on the issue. But don't "demand an apology" from another candidate. Man up, keep your focus on the electorate, and move on.

Otherwise you look fussy and easily offended.

Noonan, Huck, and The Cross

Peggy Noonan is like Slashdot. Both should be read dutifully, but bloggers should beware that it's almost useless to re-post the content. In the case of Slashdot it's because everything that can possibly be said has already been said in the comments. In Peggy Noonan's case it's because she is a phenomenally acute political observer. Just shut up and listen.

But today's Noonan column is particularly dead-on with regards to religion and politics, a topic that has already gotten tiresome this early in the election cycle. About the recent campaign advertisement from Mike Huckabee (which "accidentally" featured a cross in the background) she was conflicted, as a Christian, but:

I wound up thinking this: That guy is using the cross so I'll like him. That doesn't tell me what he thinks of Jesus, but it does tell me what he thinks of me. He thinks I'm dim. He thinks I will associate my savior with his candidacy. Bleh.

And:

Does Mr. Huckabee understand that his approach is making people uncomfortable? Does he see himself as divisive? He's a bright man, so it's hard to believe he doesn't. But it's working for him. It's getting him his 30 points in Iowa in a crowded field.

Could he win the nomination? Who knows? It's all a bubbling stew on the Republican side, and no one knows who'll float to the top. In an interview this week with David Brody of CBN, Mr. Huckabee said people everywhere were coming to him and saying, "We are claiming Isaiah 54 for you, that the weapons formed against you will not prosper."

Prayer is powerful. But Huckabee's critics say he's a manipulator with a mean streak and little knowledge of the world. And Isaiah 54 doesn't say anything about self-inflicted wounds.

That scripture she cites is worth a look. Although one should tread carefully when interpreting these things, the upshot of the passage is about how the faithful will evangelize and prevail - a thought that will make the defensive secularists almost instinctively seethe. It's a favorite of those who believe in active Christian ministry. But it also contains this gem, which reads curiously in light of Red State / Blue State America:

Enlarge the place of your tent,
stretch your tent curtains wide,
do not hold back;
lengthen your cords,
strengthen your stakes.

For you will spread out to the right and to the left;
your descendants will dispossess nations
and settle in their desolate cities.

Maybe I should post about scripture more often.

But I'm not running for president. And I think Noonan is right. Politicians cheapen themselves and their audiences when they try to deploy faith during the process of getting elected. I don't believe Mr. Huckabee didn't review the final cut of that commercial, didn't notice the "cross", and didn't comprehend the meaning that was in play.

Personally I want leaders with conviction and principles - and more often than not these traits are found in people that are trying to lead their lives based on faith. But this doesn't need to be explicit - and it's much more powerfully instructive when it's implicit - unspoken, but clear. Render unto Caesar what is Caesar's - including your service. And I don't want my president using their constitutionally-granted power to actively promote any religion any more than I want to hear it from the city trash collector on the clock.

Doing your job well is a genuine form of stewardship.

An Astronaut's Tragedy

This is a sad story, with unusual implications. From the Houston Chronicle:

The 90-year-old mother of an astronaut aboard the international space station was killed Wednesday when her car was struck by a freight train in a Chicago suburb.

A NASA flight surgeon in Mission Control informed astronaut Dan Tani of the death of his mother, Rose Tani, while he was orbiting about 220 miles above the Earth.

The article explains how NASA is following pre-defined procedures for how to handle a family tragedy that befalls an astronaut while he or she is in space. It sounds like Mr. Tani will be relived of his obligations if necessary for a set period of time. Nothing can ease the shock of losing a parent unexpectedly - but it must be an acutely difficult ordeal in the close confines of a space station, so far removed from home.

[Via NasaWatch]

Try to Make Me Go Third Party, I Won't Go, Go, Go

"Google Ron Paul" has been appearing everywhere - including on an overpass above the local interstate.

Somebody probably thinks it's a clever marketing ploy. But it seems to me one of those phrases that comes bundled with it's own inevitable irony - sort of like that "Rehab" song by train-wreck chanteuse Amy Winehouse. It's a catchy, non-self-aware epitaph. One day we will read a sad headline about the singer; and likewise, in the years ahead, only Wikipedia will remember Mr. Paul's run for the White House.

Was his name Ross Paul? No ... Google it. Ron Paul, right.

Every election cycle seems to come around with several "daydream" political candidates. They cannot conceivably be elected, but they provide for some entertaining "what if" possibilities. Usually these involve some kind of highly speculative third party scenario - and now the whispering has begun in the case of Mr. Paul.

But an American third party never seems to congeal - involving as it does a hodge podge of pseudo-socialists, Libertarians and renegade would-be populists from all political backgrounds, united only by an disgust with for both parties. Everyone nods their head vigorously over the need for alternatives, but at the end of the day there are huge disagreements about the role and size of government, and our place in (and approach to) the community of nations, including belligerent powers. It's all fun and games until you hash through the issues.

Ron Paul is nevertheless intriguing.

When The Dice Are In The Air

People who study addiction claim that gamblers are not hooked on winning, contrary to what one might expect.

It's not the occasional lucky hand or big payout that brings them back to the table or the slot machine again and again. Instead, it's that moment before fate is cast, those fleeting indeterminate seconds when anything is possible. Gamblers, regardless of whether they are on a winning or losing streak, experience the same opiate-like high when the dice are in the air, not after they land.

It gets to the root of human behavior and psychology. Anything can happen, and those encounters with chance address our need for hope. And they seem to put us in touch with something eternal - as if some primitive god had tipped back the lid of the cosmos for a second, allowing a glimpse at the quantum uncertainty boiling underneath events.

The actual face of gambling is profane, often pathetic, and very seldom glamorous.

And that's where we are with the national election. A wide variety of outcomes are possible for both major political parties - momentum is changing daily, but all of the candidates are clustered close together in the polls. At this point the election is like a town in the Wild West, with two saloons standing opposite each other, and a chair-breaking, fist-fighting brawl has broken out in each one while the piano players pound the keys madly, and the press looks down from the top of the stars like jaded, old fashioned hookers.

Soon enough one candidate from each side of the fray will stagger out into the street to face each other. But for now anything could happen, and for us political junkies and gamblers it's that sublime moment of uncertainty.

Huck Ain't The Gipper (And Couldn't Be)

Nixguy links to an article that compares Huckabee favorably to Reagan. Back in the day The Gipper was discounted by the media and the cynical class of pundits as an easy candidate to beat - and actor and and empty suit, they called him. Likewise the DNC attack machine is said to have deliberately held their fire on Huckabee, because they have such a deep file of opposition research that they see him as a candidate with a "glass jaw". In other words, if the Republicans nominate Huck, he'll be easy to slam to the ground in the general.

The idea is Huckabee shouldn't be counted out - because "they" were wrong about Reagan.

To me this seems like a misleading comparison. Much has changed in the past 30 years - notably an drastic escalation of the culture war which had only started to get underway in the 70s and 60s. There was a time in recent memory when the Democratic platform was pro-growth, pro-defense, and even acknowledged the existence of a higher power - and likewise there was a time when evangelical Christians played a much smaller role - arguably because more average people were moderately Christian.

Now both the Left and Right have sizable and incredibly angry portions of their base. If 15% of the general population consists of Democrats with Bush derangement syndrome - and if another 15% is made up of hardcore, unforgiving Republicans - that means a whopping 30% of the electorate is ready to see blood on the walls before they let the other group take the reigns of power.

This is not the same country that existed in 1980, when Reagan was swept into office by a landslide - one comprised of a plurality of conservatives, moderates, and Reagan Democrats. These days we have political machines that are tuned to operate in an intensely partisan environment. Which is why I'm willing to give some credence to the DNC's impression of Huckabee - an easy mark, who will be made to look foolish, extreme and unelectable compared to the (supposedly much more sensible) Democratic alternative.

Spooked By Huckabee

New Towers and Five-Cent Angels

They just built a new cell phone tower less than a mile from my house. Now my neighborhood, which had previously been a location for notoriously bad cell phone coverage, is almost entirely "full bars". Gone are the days of telling people "I'm about to lose you" as I drive towards home. Gone too are the days of always telling my brother and sister to call back on the house line - they are in their 20s, and it never seems to occur to them to call any number besides a mobile. Now - full bars in my living room, and even the basement.

This has made me unreasonably happy.

A couple of days ago I drove around my neighborhood, to all of the various places where coverage was impossible, calling Mrs. Spacetropic. Call me back, at the community center. Or call me at my favorite local fake Irish bar - or send me email on my Crackberry. It's a telecommunications miracle just in time for Christmas! I suppose this is the point to insert some maudlin reflection on the fact that we have no silent, disconnected places in modern life - no refuge from the tumultuous information-sphere. But right now I'm not feeling it - bring on the full bars. My cell provider (T-Mobile) has earned their holiday Whitman Sampler.

On a related note, we are trying to teach the 12-year-old responsibility, and she has been given the provisional use of an old, unattractive mobile phone. Almost as soon as this strictly limited privilege was assigned, she began receiving inane text messages from her peers, the latest of which was an "Angel Tag" - some sort of girlish conceit of blessing and luck that would be bestowed upon the recipient - but only if they forwarded it to nine more recipients.

"Do not respond to these." I counseled my daughter, but I also wondered if T-Mobile hadn't contracted with some guerrilla marketers to target families with youngsters who are coming of age in terms of mobile communication, but who have not yet succumbed to the "unlimited text messaging" up-charge that becomes inevitable when the 5-cents/per plan becomes unsustainable.

Angel tag, pass it along.

The Iran N.I.E. At Face Value

If we take the intelligence report at face value, Iran stopped pursuing a nuclear research program in 2003.

Back up a moment. If we take the intelligence report at face value, then we are saying we have a restored faith in outfits like the CIA, and everything they say, from this point forward, is not up for debate. We'll accept not only the intelligence reports that align neatly with our policy positions - but also those that cause headaches because, for example, we may have voted for some kind of recent Senate resolution (cough, cough).

So, good news! The days of murky uncertainty, per the bad old days of weapons of mass destruction and reports that may have been distorted by political pressure - those days are gone. Intelligence reports will be reliable and true from this point forward.

Also, if we take the intelligence report at face value, we might ask WHY Iran chose to stop pursuing a nuclear program. Did the mullahs abandon their efforts out of the goodness of their hearts? Did they decide that it was too technically complicated - that they were incapable of the level of sophistication that had previously been obtained by, say, Pakistan? Did they simply decide to spend the money on schools and medical care?

Or ... might they have noticed any trouble in the immediate neighborhood (cough, cough) which led them to believe that such a belligerent course of action was unwise? Do we dare consider the heretical notion that some of the "saber rattling" by the current administration might have had exactly it's stated effect - deterring belligerent powers from making advances towards terror? Admittedly it's more fashionable in some circles to sniff derisively at hot-headed rhetoric about an "axis of evil" - a phrase that entered the political lexicon on January 29, 2002, interestingly enough - because (according to that line of reasoning) Bush and his cronies actually want a war, despite their repeated, vocal claims that they want exactly the opposite.

Maybe it's time we listened to those claims.

That is, if we take the intelligence report at face value. Note that there are countries with a huge interest in not going to war who do not take this report at face value whatsoever.

How to Read Election Headlines and Spin

By the time the Time Magazine headline reads "Will Clinton's Obama Attacks Backfire?" it's already a rhetorical question, to which the answer is a strongly implied affirmative. In other words, if Hillary's spin-machine shock troops had been successful in landing a punch, and setting the media's agenda, the headline would read something like "Is Obama Ready To Be President?".

The people in Hillary's campaign must think they have more clout with the media than they actually do, these days. The game has changed radically since 1992. You can't guilt your friends into positive coverage. You can't pull off the same hack political ploys, like planted questioners, that you could in the past. Well, you can try ... but the downside is massive, and very likely to happen in an era of greater transparency.

The immediate question is - can Obama refine his message, and consistently put forward a dignified but forceful response?

So far, so good.

Tags: Obama, Hillary, Smashmouth Politics

That Nutty Christian Huckabee

There's a theory afoot that the recent rise in Mike Huckabee's fortunes is due to a desire on the part of the mainstream media for a Republican that fits their stereotype.

They've tried repeatedly to amp up every social issue to create internal conflict, by hyperventilating, for example, over Rudy's multiple marriages or pro-choice stance, or by supposedly showing off the crazed intolerance of the Republicans for supporting the longstanding policy on gays in the military. Each one of these items fizzled, in the sense that they haven't managed to provoke some red-faced, fire-and-brimstone response from the Christian base - which is viewed by the large segments of the coastal media in only the most stereotypical terms.

So, the theory goes, push Huckabee. He'll be a better punching bag in the general, since his background positions him close enough to the president as a whack-job Christian who wants to impose some strict vision on the tolerant center. And right out of the gate Washington Post columnist Richard Cohen couldn't wait to start landing a few punches:

The Republican presidential field has some feeble minds and some dangerous ones as well, but none has done as much damage as Huckabee has. Religion does not belong in the political arena. It does not lend itself to compromise.

Translation: I'm still sputtering with anger over the fact that my fellow citizens elected this primate to the presidency, and I'll do everything in my power to prevent anyone with anything like his beliefs (religious, political or otherwise) near the reigns of power in the future.

Those in the media class never quite understand how many people they are insulting when they assume this narrow-minded and intolerant stance towards religious folks. Speaking as an entrenched moderate on many social issues, I still have respect for people with religious beliefs that are strong enough that they have a direct connection to policy and politics. They should be heard alongside everyone else - even while we must ultimately consider the pluralistic nature of our society.

But I'm not convinced that the media is capable of pulling the strings to the extent that they can cause a candidate to rise in the polls with such sudden force. Social conservatives have been looking for a champion up until this point in the cycle - and while Huckabee is hardly ideal (he's wrong for all segments on immigration) - he might be worth another look, and his candidacy might be hitting it's stride.

All around, this is turning out to be a real, rip-snortin' horse race.