Think About The Future

A million spreadsheets are quietly being updated today.

Thousands of companies have a line-item in their pricing models for transportation expense. It may be the cost of sending trucks inland from the ports on the coasts that receive products manufactured overseas. Or it may be shipping parcels with the companies that handle air freight. Or it might be the cost of putting hundreds of repair trucks on the road to deliver service.

Thanks to Katrina, that line item is being jacked. We know the ripple effects from this disaster on our economy are simply massive, but we can't see very far down the road. Still we can be sure that the average consumer will be hit in several places beyond the gas pump.

And as I was sitting on a porch yesterday evening overlooking the city - a friend and I were talking about neighborhoods, development, and demographic trends. As we discussed these topics in light of this oil shock, it seemed very possible that one potential impact could be on the proliferation of outlying exurbs. There might be more value in living in central locations, near work and key services. When we contemplate an endless future at $4 a gallon there may be some charm in concepts like light rail through vital neighborhoods, and development corridors that consolidate growth.

Some of the worst mistakes we make as a society seem to extend from the assumption that things will never change; that the seas will always be calm, or that we can always "ride it out".