The Big Uneasy

News networks have switched to disaster mode as hurricane Katrina intensifies to a Category 5 monster. I've spend Sunday morning around the house with the TV on mute - and every few seconds they show the satellite footage of a big, circular bruise ready to slam into the Gulf Coast. Mayor Ray Nagin - not a contender for the Giuliani award for disaster leadership, in my mind - finally ordered a mandatory evacuation of New Orleans.

The hype may be warranted. A study done by Joe Suthayda suggests that the potential for disaster in The Big Easy could exceed the earthquake scenarios that are regularly imagined when San Francisco experiences the next "big one". There are 2,000 miles of levees built by the US Army Corps of engineers - and when they fail, large portions of the peninsula in Louisiana may be underwater or destroyed.

Based on coverage I've seen of similar "weather events" these hurricanes sometimes fizzle at the last second, or veer unexpectedly towards less-populated areas. Considering that there are supposed to be about 100,000 people in New Orleans without the means to transport themselves away from the danger zone, we should pray (or hope with secular intensity) that this deadly bullet can be dodged.

And lets not forget our (literally) precious oil supply. Drilling platforms and refineries are sprinkled along the Gulf Coast, and they are all closing. Any major disruption to service could send prices into an even deeper tailspin. This - along with the news that we will almost certainly be footing a billion-dollar FEMA bill - should unleash havoc on the markets this Monday.

UPDATE: The Weather Underground seems to be the place to go for hardcore meteorology. Dr. Jeff Masters and Steve Gregory are blogging the hurricane with expertise. Unfortunately it sounds very likely that New Orleans as we know it could soon be a memory.