Marine Bites Elephant

Money, blogs, and operational excellence – this proved to be a powerful combination in Democrat Paul Hackett’s challenge to Jean Schmitt in the Second District of Ohio. But the Republicans are looking at these factors – and the fact that he’s a pro-gun Iraqi war veteran with a nice smile and a cleft chin - and not expressing any surprise.

Democrats are likewise doing back flips, energized by the fact that there is still life in their political party. Hackett’s loss by a narrow margin seems was like a science experiment that worked; given the right combination of energy, time, and message – it’s theoretically possible to win a few votes in the dark Red heart of America.

Both sides, it seems to me, are ignoring some of the more uncomfortable truths of practical politics. Republicans should take this narrow-miss as an opportunity to hit mute on the Fox Network and consider the possibility that a large chunk of voters are neither Hannity-listeners nor Baptist snake-handlers. They may be conservative, and they may support the war in Iraq, but they might have diminishing faith in our current leadership.

Likewise Democrats may want to check themselves before they assume that everybody out there in the sticks is secretly disgusted with George Bush and snarling along with Al Franken. People have really come to resent the French edge of the Democratic Party and their reflexive self-hatred when it comes to America, our defense, and foreign policy. The religious fringe of the Republic party doesn’t quite engender that level of instinctual distrust – but they might be on their way.

It seems to me that a careful reading of these election returns suggests that a newly-emerging moderate ideology might be the actual winner of this special election. Anyone looking towards 2008 can ignore this lesson at their peril. As the parties get deeper in the nomination process many will continue to fool themselves into believing that all it takes is more and more red meat for the base.

So ask yourself, conservatives: What could your arch-enemy Hillary be thinking this morning as she ponders these results? And which party is more strongly positioned to field a more moderate candidate in 2008?

UPDATE: Mike Barone is one of the shrewdest and most evenhanded pundits in the business of political analysis - and he's started blogging. This post about turnout in the 2nd OH special election should give Republicans pause. (VIA INSTAPUNDIT)