Bring the Obama Drama
Zogby indicates that Obama is making "dramatic gains" in the past six week, advancing to 25% against Hillary's 33% (hat tip Daily Bellwether). Obama - who recently picked up a cool half-million in a drive by appearance here in Cincinnati - is also more popular among the younger Democrats, who quite reasonably expect a fresh political perspective following the past 19 years of Bush-Clinton.
This worries me somewhat. I don't want to be deprived of the entertainment value of a flame-out by Mrs. Clinton too early in the game. In these early appearances she's on-script, in carefully managed settings. Even her most loyal supporters acknowledge that when she's presented with unexpected, impromptu debates and tough questions - that's when the plaster begins to crack and Dr. Rodham is transformed to Hillaryzilla. And the "we shall destroy you" politics that we saw directed at David Geffen were just a tantalizing hint of what may be forthcoming.
The political handicapper in me wants to see Obama "on her six" for several months while she disintegrates, mostly due to self-inflicted wounds - over-reacting, handling the Bill issue awkwardly, tying herself into knots about the contradictions of her voting record and public statements. After all, Barack has the moral high ground when it comes to Iraq - it will benefit him greatly, during the leftward lurch that is required in the primary season, that he's always been against the war, no positioning necessary.
As a conservative I'd prefer to see Hillary (just barely) win the nomination, since she will expose even more floundering contradictions in the run-to-the center that will be required when the national cycle begins. Obama would simply be a tougher opponent if he gets the nod, and I'm willing to bet the "back room" of veteran political sharks from the Clinton team would jump on his bandwagon. Furthermore I'm guessing that post-nomination he will begin to address, for the benefit of the swing/center voters - the other important question: Aside from Iraq (because he's made it amply clear where he stands) how does America negotiate it's interests in a dangerous world?
And that's when Obama will start sounding themes of the tough statesman - instead of the principled opposition.