Trendspotting for Dummies

So the city Cincinnati is losing population at a tremendous rate, and our mainstream paper the Enquirer has finally noticed, and they want to do a story. Welcome to the 1990s, Enquirer! Believe it or not they are actively soliciting feedback on why this phenomenon is occurring - email Kimball Perry or Carl Weiser if you would like to contribute.

Let me put on my psychic wizards cap and venture a guess on the types of responses they might receive: People don't want to deal with crime, they think the city government is ineffective, the exurbs are perceived as cleaner and safer, and the housing opportunities out there are an attractive investment. (Racial issues are a factor in the minds of many, but don't expect this to be mentioned explicitly by migrating white people. The most obvious code word will be "crime".)

These reasons might be valid or invalid in varying degrees. Anyone who has lived in town has had the experience of hearing this litany from people who have bought a stake in the beige neighborhoods of exurbia. The point is - it's incredibly familiar. (Full disclosure: I live in the city neighborhood of Pleasant Ridge, I'm fully informed about the trade-offs, and I like my location.)

Nevertheless this trend and it's causes somehow qualify as news. Don't expect the article that is written by the Enquirer to take a provocative angle - for example, contrasting the facts on why some people stay, or digging into the psychology by looking at real numbers on risk versus perception. Expect something uninformative and predictable, with all of the interesting side-issues unexplored. And don't expect to be offended or disturbed in any way - construction and homebuilding companies buy a lot of ad space.

UPDATE: Okay, I may have hauled off with a sarcastic tone too quickly. Weiser emails that another article about people moving into the city will be published at some point. Admittedly this is less relevant in terms of raw statistics, but my unsarcastic suggestion is that this could make a better story - and that some of the reasons given for exurbian migration should be poked and prodded.