Domino Game Theory

Let's review. There are two groups of Lebanese.

First we have the pro-independence crowd, mobilized towards democracy by the assassination of Rafik Hariri. They held vigils, and increasing larger rallies, to demand Syrian withdrawal. They're the side with the attractive protest babes.

Then there is the pro-Syrian group, comprised largely of Hezbollah. They rounded up some supporters and held a bigger protest last week, while chanting, without any apparent sense of irony, about 'no foreign interference'. They're the side with machine guns.

Today the pro-independence crowd struck back with an even bigger protest, and some inspired signs. Meanwhile Syrian troops and intelligence agents are quietly moving towards the border. And in Syria itself there are some cracks around the facade of Bashar Assad's regime (maybe he can go back to ophthalmology).

The genie of democracy has clearly been released from the bottle in the Middle East. But we should expect reversals of fortune along the way, and on the basis of experience, this administration would be wise to resist any tendencies towards 'mission accomplished' -style pronouncements. The dominoes could still fall, but it might not happen quickly or without bloodshed. Still I think we might be watching history.