Fighter Pilot Chases Skirts!!

This is the best the New York Times can offer in their too-predictable delayed attack? A couple of disgruntled former employees claim that John McCain got a little flirtatious with a lady lobbiest?

If that's as far as it went, both in terms of the quid pro quo and the pas de deux - then I, for one, admire the guy more than I did yesterday. Any red-blooded American fighter jock with a "maverick" reputation who doesn't notice the ladies might as well move up to Soviet Canada with his wingman.

Something tells me Cindy McCain is nonplussed.

The New York Times is like a dinosaur stuck in a mud pit. Plummeting circulation and perennially dropping shareholder value will eventually force a fateful end to the venerable publication. But it looks like before the Grey Lady finally expires she's going to assert her relevance by turning a few cheap tricks in the back room.

The story this morning is how this effort by the NYT is laughably transparent. The other story I think we'll see developing is how the more the press goes after him, and the more he takes on the Democrats directly, the more Republicans are going to fall in to support McCain.

Buckeye Ugly

Looks like the Clinton shock troops are setting up a 527 in Ohio to churn out the truly nasty anti-Obama message. This is same type of legal entity as the famous "Swiftboat Veterans" from 2004. Technically these groups are supposed to be unaffiliated with the campaign, but they are almost always funded and organized by the most intense partisans.

Politically they operate like an autonomous terrorist cell, communicating with headquarters using methods that are difficult to trace. One expects Mark Penn to have a stack of disposable cell phones nearby.

The Clintons do vicious politics better than anyone. But exit polling from Wisconsin suggested that Hillary suffered a pronounced ill effect from the last round negative advertising. They must somehow think it will work in Ohio.

But it's the transparency, stupid. Hours after this 527 was set up the news ricocheted through the political troposphere, with the names and numbers of all of the backers. Every nasty-gram they send via direct mail is going to be scrutinized on the nightly news. You simply can't play these dirty tricks under the radar anymore. And as I said before, this is a pronounced difference from 1992, one of the many ways our civic life has been transformed.

They're going down. And they're going down ugly.

Wisconsin Cheese and Change

First of all, a prediction: In another four to six weeks much of the consternation from conservatives will have started to fade, and the Republicans will fall in line behind McCain.

No, I'm not saying "suck it up". I'm saying, as this thing firms up against an opponent (looking like Obama) - many GOPers will feel much more affectionately towards the old maverick. His themes are going to be slowly changing, and there was a preview of that in his Wisconsin victory speech.

As for the Democrats, the media wants another change in the fundamental dynamic. The want an Obama bubble to burst so Hillary can make a real contest of the final stretch. But I think something different is happening with the general Democrat public, which is slow to awaken, and which moves with a great deal of weight and inertia.

They don't want Hillary Clinton. It seems like a dismal restoration. The only people she's winning are the people who don't know very much about the choices. According to the Wisconsin exits, the only group she's winning are over 50 women who haven't been to college. Herself, but with less education.

The Democrat Party elders are watching this go down. And they're watching the trial balloon "cheater" strategies the Clintons have let fly in the media. Are you going to tell me that a supposedly independent arbiter like Al Gore wants these Bill and Hill on the 2008 ticket, and back at the helm of the Democrat Party?

Nope.

The Obama Rapture Arrives

On March 4 the Buckeye State will once again play a potentially pivotal role in the national election. Even while national polls continue to suggest that Hillary Clinton has a solid lead among likely Ohio voters there are some signs that Obama-Mania(TM) has come to this corner of America.

This breathless post from 'Buckeye State Blog' (HT Bizzyblog) paints a picture of an overflowing organizational meeting for Obama that took place yesterday in Cincinnati:

In all my years of political activism and volunteerism, I'd never seen anything like it. We weren't coming to a rally, and we weren't coming to vote. We were coming to offer our time and our support. And to do that, just that one simple act of participation, we sat in a traffic jam on a miserable February day, we slid across treacherous ice, and ruined our best work shoes in the grey city snow. And we did this, with less than 24 hour notice, in the most incredible numbers I've ever seen for a primary election. A primary! And in Cincinnati, the Republican bastion of the state! I've never even seen a crowd half its size for the first volunteer meeting for a general election!

Deep breaths there, fella. I'm sure it was tremendously exciting - and I'm willing to concede that we're looking at a powerful new force in presidential politics, one which threatens to swamp the Clinton machine.

One quibble, though. You and many other Democrats and Lefties continue to insist that Cincinnati is the GOP "bastion" of the state. I realize it's been the currency of conversation for many years - boring old normal Cincinnati with it's 19th century morals. And Republicans did own the city electorate as recently as 10 years ago.

But now the city proper is a boring old behind-the-times Democrat town. All of the Republicans moved out to Butler and Warren counties.

This is not a trivial point, and it's one that will haunt you if you get it wrong on the basis of facile assumptions. The John Kerry campaign weighted the map incorrectly in 2004 when it came to demographic shifts, and put to much GOTV effort into the wrong counties. You are free to make that mistake again at your own peril.

The Obama campaign, one hopes, has a better map - and will send people out knocking on doors in areas that do not plan to vote for him already.

White Catholic History Month

The demographics of the Obama win in last night's mid-Atlantic states are stunning. It's not just the English department, undergraduates, and black people that are voting for the guy - although his numbers in these areas are phenomenal. He's now pulling down Catholics, white males, even massive inroads into the Latino community.

The only way

The Beltway Tuesday Blues

Today the Beltway votes. Half the supposedly "strait" news staff and most of the chattering bobbleheads that populate the political round-tables on on Fox and MSNBC and CNN have zip codes in North-West, Georgetown, and Chevy Chase - the tonier neighborhoods of the states and districts that are participating in today's Chesapeake Tuesday.

This is my home territory. Prior to relocating to Ohio I grew up in 'DC' - the natives almost never call it Washington, except when making categorical statements about it's unique culture - and I make it back there a few times a year. In many respects I call Ohio my home now, but there are often times when I'm reminded that, at heart, or perhaps by virtue of my disposition, I'm an East Coast guy.

As I've been watching the coverage today I've noticed a certain soul-searching tone. David Gregory looks a little less spry, and Andrea Mitchell seems to be wringing her hands more about Hillary's ultimate prospects. It occurs to me that these folks have had, or will soon have, a moment of truth in the intimate confines of the voting booth.

And the media blues may be related to the fact that we've been grinding away on the same stories for a while. To the extent that the media can muster any interest in the GOP side, there are two tired memes: McCain versus talk radio (Part LXXVII) and the likely-meaningless Hucakbee protest vote.

Everything else is Obama and Hillary. The Clintons have set very low expectations. This is done so that they can either chide the media for wrongfully covering a non-story - because Obama was supposed to win anyway - or they can chide the media for getting the story wrong, because she pulled off an upset. The common feature of both tacks is that the Clinton campaign has a choke collar on the fourth estate and a spiked heel on their back (just ask David Schuster).

One thing is for sure - this temporary stasis pattern cannot be tolerated. The media cannot abide the same political story for more than a week. Momentum has to shift in ways that make a headline. That means Obama pulls far ahead, or Hillary retakes the lead, or Huck somehow solves the math problem. Or a celebrity dies, or a bomb goes off. Something. The beast must be fed.

These February doldrums cannot be allowed to last.

The 5 Stages of McGrief

Reading some of the posts lately in the Right-o-sphere I think it's
pretty easy to chart the Kübler-Ross model for dealing with the John
McCain tragedy.

Denial: "Well, who's left? Huckabee, Paul? Somebody forgot to take
Rudy off the ballot? As far as I'm concerned, it's still three weeks
ago dammit!"

Anger: "This backstabbing, media-loving, treacherous, snickering bastard expects to have my support? Never!"

Bargaining: "Maybe he won't pull that maverick crap about taxes and judicial appointments. If he can just be a bona fide conservative on those issues I can, you know, deal."

Depression: Why bother? Better to buy a few firearms and stay in the family compound, since Hillary's going to win anyway. Nothing will change until the country truly goes to hell."

Acceptance: "

Pronouns, Money, and America

Barack Obama is up against a mighty opponent. The Clinton machine is a network of mafia-like dues and obligations that has had thirty years and a presidency to extend itself. Obama has effectively side-stepped this, and gone right to the heart of our political process. The people.

It may seem like some weepy, romantic concept along with the hype about "hope" and "change" - but it's a concept that's on track to deliver 30 million dollars a months into the coffers of the hope-monger's campaign - all with, potentially, the nomination itself, while Hillary upends the cushions at the Chappaqua to look for cash.

Can you imagine any Republican anywhere fueling a bid for the White House on $25 and $50 checks? One reason campaign finance reform is anathema to Republicans is because the grassroots model would never work. If your world is mostly corporations, from your employer to the sub-development to your home full of products - it's a natural assumption that the culture of GOP politics would include big donors and corporate special interests.

The small-scale donors that have fueled the Obama effort are in line with the rhetoric that is emitting from the podium, which relies heavily on the first person plural. Unlike the first person singular, "I will do everything FOR you" bromides of his opponent Hillary - which have grown increasingly tiresome (not to mention condescending) in the past 40 years - Obama asserts the national "we" as the only means to accomplish anything politically.

Against "yes we can" the GOP is sending in John McCain. Even his detractors will admit he's a fighter, although usually against his own team. He certainly seems to own his pronouns, "us and them" per the (say it with me) transcendental challenge of our times, militant Islam.

Obama's first person plural might seem like socialism to some people, who may think such let's-do-it-together concepts should be banished to harmless, impractical places like Kindergarten or Church. Ours is a world where one must man up and carve out a slice of the American pie - and if our rivals lose a finger or two in the process, those are the breaks. Hate the game, not the player (said Shakespeare, I think).

There's much about Obama's politics that I find alarming, and even dangerous. But it seems to me there's much appeal in the notion of an inclusive, uplifting "we" at this time in our history. And it wouldn't be the first time, either - come to think of it, if I recall correctly, it's the first word in the Declaration of Independence.

Romney Bails

There have been times, in the past few weeks, where the expression on Mitt Romney's face just seems incredulous. He's been saying all of the right things, doing all of the right things - playing hard for the nomination. And yet ... the media hates the guy, the other candidates hate the guy, the grassroots seem to care less. What's a brother gotta do?

Turns out it's a hill too steep to climb. He won over a motley bunch of country-club Righties and the conservative commentariat, scored a couple of states, and spent a pile of cash from the Romney family fortune. But as a good businessman he probably can look at the numbers, read the environment and the risk and reasonably conclude: It isn't going to happen.

Some have suggested that the time has come for the stop-McCain coalition to throw their efforts behind Huck for the final round of "last pseudo-conservative standing". That might make as much sense as anything this election season, were it not for the fundamental math problem with regard to delegates, the fact that Huck has limited, regional appeal - and the likelihood that he has been guaranteed the second seat on the Strait Talk Express.

Romney might be playing the long-term game. With all this talk of Reagan, one possible option is to pretend it's 1976 all over again, and we need to wander four years in the darkness of Carter-like weakness before a spiffy new conservatism ascends.

Because it's 'game over' for this GOP cycle.

Suicide Voters And Extremists

Now there's a provocative image, from Charles Hurt in the New York Post (emphasis mine):

The depressing GOP field that has paved a path to victory for McCain also gave surprising wins last night to Huckabee in Georgia, Alabama and Tennessee, as well as in his home state of Arkansas.

Still, McCain has so radicalized key conservatives that some have vowed to turn themselves into suicide voters next November by pulling the lever for Hillary Rodham Clinton over him.

It resonates because some conservatives don't want their ideology tainted with the mess that the expect will ensue if John McCain takes the nomination. Better to protect conservatism at the expense of the country - even if it means lefty judicial picks, federal expansion, and the Bill Clinton bathtub ring that will need to be scrubbed off the preidency all over again.

While others might be ignorantly going about their business in the marketplace of democracy, these folks are willing to strap themselves with explosives in the name of the cause. And if you listen to hard Right pundits, there an eerie resemblance to the tapes we sometimes see from TV Al Qaeda. It's hallmark is an intense animosity to the moderates and compromisers that are seen to have sold out the One True Ideology. The objective is never consensus, but instead unqualified defeat, or nothing.

This analogy only goes so far - but if you truly believe voting is a meaningful, definitive civic act, where we are obligated as patriots to act in the best interests of our country, then we shouldn't be playing games.

Supertuesday Postgame

Just the bullet-points. There's no flow.

• Looks like it's McCain-Huckabee. Depressing.
• Obama couldn't score California, also depressing.
• Hillary won the coastal Democrats.
  
• But ... Obama really cleaned up a huge variety of different states, from Alaska to Georgia to Missouri.
• Romney can't seem to land a punch. He's finished.
  
• At what point do all of the radio hosts look like disloyal Republicans? The schadenfruende begins at 12:06 on AM radio.
• They say the late-breakers went Obama.
• Hillary's speech was abysmal. The same old "I am just SO excited ..." constructions.
• For that matter, Obama's wasn't very good - for him.
• The right-wing blogs are simply unreadable.

Late returns + the storms that raged in my part of the country late last night = very tired blogger.

On to Tidewater Tuesday.

All of Your Base Are Belong To Us

Pity the average Republican and Democrat.

They simply go about their business most of the time, and then, if they are motivated to vote around the primary season, many of them scan the list of names and cross of the ones that don't look familiar. Thus we have the apparent resurgence of John McCain and the so-called "inevitability" of Hillary.

Now it's all out of whack. Now radio hosts are responding to McCain's winning streak by bellowing indignantly about the true nature of conservatism - which must seem like a much more stringent standard then average Republican Joe considered, offhand. And all of the folks on Hillary autopilot are being begged by their college-age relatives to consider Obama, instead of sending us backwards into 4 to 8 years of everyone screaming at each other constantly.

So the conservatives are aligned in one last stand behind a guy who was widely diaparaged (in some corners) as the most loathsome type of moderate until about 18 months ago - Mitt Romney. And the Clintonites, who once upon a time grooved to the tune "Don't Stop Thinking About Tomorrow" are trying to fight the future, and twisting themselves into knots attempting to spin 1984-isms by claiming The Same is really Change.

Never has this seemed more apropos.

Tonight's the night. I will be semi-liveblogging, and trying not to stay up too late to catch the California results ...

Update: The brutality on the Right continues.